Macro
U-3 4.1% Below 4.5% neutral
CPI YoY 2.8% Above 2.0% target
10Y UST 4.32% Tight financial conditions
VIX 16.2 Low-vol regime
FRED · refreshed hourly

Explainable Co-Pilot

Six investor personas — Buffett, Munger, Lynch, Dalio, Soros, Marks — review your portfolio draft. Each verdict carries a confidence interval and a cited rationale. Nova does not hide the reasoning; you see which heuristics fired and which did not.

Awaiting review. Fill the weights and press Run.

How the scores are built

  • Buffett · owner-operator. Penalises leverage > 60% equity, rewards dividend-shelf and moat proxies (bonds + blue-chip equity weight).
  • Munger · anti-stupidity. Flags concentration > 70% single asset class, rewards Cash + Bonds buffer ≥ 20%.
  • Lynch · invest in what you know. Rewards equity weight between 40–70%, penalises alt > 15% (unknown terrain).
  • Dalio · all-weather. Scores against the 30/55/15 risk-parity anchor; diversification distance is the loss.
  • Soros · reflexivity. Rewards volatility-ready cash, penalises crowded growth tilt > 10% in long-horizon lanes.
  • Marks · cycle-aware. Weights answer by macro regime chip above — tightens in VIX > 20, eases in regime-good.

Live Portfolio

Twelve pre-seeded holdings pulled from Yahoo Finance every few minutes. Edit share counts inline — Nova recomputes market value, weight, P/L, and 60-day returns. When Yahoo is unreachable, prior closes are held; the status pill flips to SIM.

Market value $—
Daily Δ
60d return
Concentration (top 3)
Portfolio β
1-day 99% VaR

60-day equity curve · normalised to 100

Nova portfolio SPY benchmark

Source: Yahoo Finance via corsproxy.io · normalised on first common bar

Symbol Name Shares Last Daily Δ Market value Weight 60d β

Margin Heat Meter

A live gauge between initial margin and house call. Enter your account, and Nova walks the corridor: initial (Reg T 50%), maintenance (FINRA 25%, house 30%), Fed Rule 431 stress overlay. Pin-point where your equity sits relative to every line that matters.

0% 100%
Maintenance · 25% House · 30% Stressed · 35% Initial · 50% Equity
Equity %
Buying power
House-call threshold
Drawdown to call
Day-trade BP (NYSE 431)
Regime chip
Fill inputs & press Recompute.

Risk Profile & Kelly Sizer

A six-question behavioural quiz calibrates your loss-tolerance archetype, then a Kelly-criterion calculator sizes a single-trade position given edge and odds. Both use the same underlying math portfolio managers use at interview — no black-box magic.

Risk archetype quiz

Your portfolio drops 20% in a month. What do you do?
How often do you check prices?
Primary goal?
Horizon?
Leverage comfort?
Liquid savings outside this account?

Kelly sizer

Kelly-criterion position size: f* = (bp − q) / b, where b = odds received (win/loss ratio), p = win prob, q = 1 − p. Shown with the standard half-Kelly reduction because full-Kelly draws hard drawdowns.

55%
Kelly fraction (full)
Half-Kelly (recommended)
Position size (half-Kelly $)
Expected value / trade
Max drawdown (95% CI, 1k trades)

Your archetype

Balanced Score 14 / 24

Press Score archetype after answering all six questions.

    Tax-Lot Optimizer

    Enter up to eight lots per symbol. Nova surfaces the best sale order for your tax goal — minimise gain, harvest loss, or avoid short-term — and flags IRS §1091 wash-sale risk when a replacement is bought within 30 days.

    Proceeds
    Realised gain
    Short-term portion
    Long-term portion
    Estimated tax
    After-tax proceeds

    Sell order (matched against your strategy)

    # Lot date Shares Basis Gain Term

    Provenance

    • Wash sale rule · IRS §1091 — loss disallowed if substantially identical security is bought within 30 days before or after.
    • Capital gains · IRS Pub. 550. Short-term: < 1 year, taxed as ordinary income. Long-term: ≥ 1 year, preferential 0 / 15 / 20% brackets.
    • Specific-identification · IRS Reg. §1.1012-1(c) — you can choose which lots to sell provided adequate records.
    • Nova does not provide tax advice. Consult a CPA for your specific situation.